SpaceX shares slipped below their $135 IPO price on Wednesday, dipping under $133 before clawing back to the break-even line. It’s a symbolic bruise for a company that rocketed past $200 in the days after its June 12 debut, briefly brushing shoulders with Amazon and Microsoft in valuation. The stock has bled value almost every week since that peak.
Much of the whiplash comes down to simple mechanics. Only 4% of SpaceX shares are actually trading — a tiny float for a company that commands an immense amount of attention. That mismatch creates wild swings. But the mechanics aren’t the whole story. The markets seem to be sobering up on Musk’s otherworldly promises, part of a broader tech stock deflation that’s also hammering SpaceX bonds sold after the IPO.
This matters beyond one company’s stock chart. SpaceX was supposed to be the trailblazer, setting the table for other Big Tech names waiting in the wings. Anthropic and OpenAI have both filed confidentially for IPOs, and everyone’s watching SpaceX to gauge the appetite for these kinds of high-ambition, high-risk debuts. A prolonged slump could chill that pipeline.
Thursday brings an early test with the first Starship launch since the IPO. The rocket is still deep in development, which means failure is baked into the process — the company’s whole philosophy is “fly, fail, fix.” The last flight in May ended with a booster failure, and this one won’t even attempt recovery. Both the booster and upper stage are designed to simulate a Gulf of Mexico landing, meaning they’ll end in explosions regardless of how smoothly things go. How the market digests that spectacle will say a lot about whether investors still buy the long-term story.
